The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy will host a statewide webinar Tuesday, May 21, at 10 a.m.

Members of the Alaska Interagency Working Group will discuss challenges and strategies for a coordinated approach to integrated arctic management.

For registration and dial-in instructions, visit www.accap.uaf.edu or call 907-474-6961.

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Due to construction on the UAF campus, the Fairbanks Summer Arts Festival will be held in a variety of community locations this summer. The festival is scheduled July 14 -28 and will include classes, workshops and performances in dance, music, theater, and visual, literary, culinary and healing arts. The festival is scheduled to return to campus in 2014. For more information, visit the festival online at www.fsaf.org or call 907-474-8869.

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Photo by Regine Hock
Joanna Young, a UAF Geophysical Institute glaciology graduate student, drills a hole into the Susitna Glacier for a weather station to be installed.

Diana Campbell
907-474-5229
5/16/13 

Alaska’s melting glaciers remain one of the largest contributors to the world’s rising sea levels, say two University of Alaska Fairbanks geophysicists.

UAF Geophysical Institute researchers Anthony Arendt and Regine Hock joined 14 scientists from 10 countries who combined data from field measurements and satellites to get the most complete global picture to date of glacier mass losses and their contribution to rising sea levels.

“Sea level change is a pressing societal problem,” Arendt said. “These new estimates are helping us explain the causes of current sea-level rise.”

Their findings appear in the May 17 edition of Science magazine.

The study’s main finding is that from 2003-2009, the world’s mountain glaciers added just as much meltwater to rising sea levels as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, said Alex Gardner, main author on the study and an assistant professor at Clark University in Massachusetts. The melt from the mountain glaciers alone explains one third of current sea level rise of about 2.5 millimeters, or a tenth of an inch, yearly, with glacial melt, ice sheet melt and the warming of ocean water equally sharing responsibility.

The study was compiled in order to provide new estimates to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global report compiled every six years summarizing scientists’ best estimates of the environmental impacts of climate variations.

Photo by Regine Hock
The Susitna Glacier feeds into the Susitna River and is one of the contributors of sea level rise.

Part of Arendt’s and Hock’s contribution to the study was to assist in compiling a globally complete inventory of the Earth’s glaciers, with a focus on Alaska’s glaciers. Before the study, only about 40 percent of Alaska’s glaciers were inventoried. The two researchers also helped compile the most recent estimates of Alaska glacier changes, showing that Alaska remains one of the top contributors to global sea level.

“Alaska has a considerable amount of glacier ice, much of which is located near the coast, making it particularly susceptible to climate fluctuations,” said Arendt.

The two researchers emphasized the need for further study: Of all the regions examined, Alaska had some of the largest discrepancies between field and satellite estimates.

“More field data is needed to supplement satellite observations, so that we can better understand how glaciers in Alaska will respond to future climate variations,” said Hock.

ADDITIONAL CONTACTS: Anthony Arendt, GI, research assistant professor, 907-474-7427, arendta@gi.alaska.edu. Regine Hock, GI geophysics professor, 907-474-7691, regine.hock@gi.alaska.edu. Amy Hartley, GI public information officer, 907-474-5823, amy.hartley@gi.alaska.edu

ON THE WEB:
Science: ScienceMag.org
GI Glaciers Research Group: http://glaciers.gi.alaska.edu

NOTE TO EDITORS:Photos are available for download online at http://uafcornerstone.net/glacier2013 Science is the weekly journal of the American Association of the Advancement of Science and is considered the world’s leading journal of original scientific research, global news, and commentary.

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Cooperative Extension energy specialist Art Nash and Dave Messier [MESS-ee-er] of Tanana Chiefs Conference will discuss and demonstrate practical energy options for camps and other remote locations at a free public event May 22 from 5:30 to 8:30 p.m.

Activities will take place in Room 201 of the Reichardt Building on the University of Alaska Fairbanks campus.

They will cover solar cells, small windmills, hydro props, battery banks, generators and rocket stoves.

ADDITIONAL CONTACTS: Art Nash, 907-474-6366, alnashjr@alaska.edu.

ON THE WEB: www.uaf.edu/ces

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UAF photo by Todd Paris
The Mendenhall Glacier, near Juneau.

Arctic nations should move quickly to adopt shipping rules, improve safeguards against oil spills and create environmental and safety standards in polar waters, according to a new report released from the University of the Arctic’s Institute for Applied Circumpolar Policy.

The report is the fifth produced by the IACP, a partnership among the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Dartmouth College and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The institute promotes discussion of critical policy issues facing the circumpolar North as a result of climate change.

“The scientific evidence of climate change and global warming is now irrefutable and the pace of global warming, sea ice melt and permafrost thaw has accelerated,” the report notes. “The ‘new’ Arctic and its abundant energy and natural resources are now, more than ever, exposed to development. The Arctic is a region where Russia, Europe and North America, working with indigenous peoples and interested non-arctic states, have taken initial steps to make the Arctic a peaceful and stable region where productive, sustainable development is achievable. The compelling issue now is how to build, strengthen and sustain this cooperation.”

The IACP urged the Arctic Council to expand on the report’s recommendations at its May 15 meeting in Sweden. The council is an intergovernmental organization for the eight arctic countries: Canada, Denmark (including Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden and the United States.

The report is the result of a February meeting in Washington D.C., which drew more than 40 leading arctic scholars, government officials, industry leaders and representatives for indigenous people.

“The Institute has again provided guidance to the international community regarding the challenges and opportunities facing communities throughout the North,” said Mike Sfraga, co-director of the IACP and a vice chancellor at UAF. “I am confident this report will assist policymakers and stakeholders navigate the dynamic physical and political landscape ahead.”

The report’s specific recommendations include:

• Action from the Arctic Council urging the International Maritime Organization to adopt a mandatory code for ships operating in polar waters and regulations for safe operations of cruise ships;
• An arctic economic forum to promote public/private partnerships and help resolve issues, such as environmental pollution, involving private sector natural resources development;
• An information clearinghouse for public and private data on oil spill preparedness, prevention and remediation;
• More capacity for indigenous people and their organizations to research and develop a health care system tailored to their culture;
• Action from the Arctic Council that encourages cooperation among each nation’s militaries and coast guards in search and rescue and emergency/disaster response; situational awareness for Arctic Ocean shipping safety and prevention of illegal activities;
• An Arctic Maritime Forum to share maritime information.

ADDITIONAL CONTACTS: Mike Sfraga at 907-474-2600 or msfraga@alaska.edu.

Download the report

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UAF photo by Todd Paris
UAF CTC Dean Michele Stalder explores the flight deck of the program’s newly acquired Boeing 727. (Todd Paris photo)

The University of Alaska Fairbanks Community and Technical College will host the annual community event, Fairbanks Aviation Day, Saturday, May 18, from 7 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the UAF CTC aviation hangar at 3504 South University Avenue.

Events start with a morning pancake feed fundraiser. Starting at 9 a.m., youths between the ages of 8 and 17 will be able to take a free flight in a small aircraft. Other activities include tours and information about the planes, people and businesses in Alaska’s aviation industry.

ADDITIONAL CONTACTS: Bob Hawkins, Alaska Aerofuel 451-3825. Tom George, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, 455-9000.

ON THE WEB: http://facebook.com/FairbanksAOC
Download the event flier

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The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI); the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM); Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.
Downscaling marries high-resolution data from local weather stations on temperature and precipitation (left) with coarse data on global climate change (right) to make more precise predictions for a certain area.

Molly Rettig
5/13/2013

In Alaska, our lives revolve around the weather. When it comes to predicting conditions like temperature, snow and rain, the best glimpse into the future often comes from climate models.

But standard climate models are very broad—looking at how global climate will be affected by things like escalating carbon dioxide emissions.

In a land of permafrost, icefields, mountain ranges and rainforest, a more nuanced prediction is helpful. For example, will it get rainier in the North Slope over the next few decades? When might Southcentral’s epic snow dumps turn to rain?

Steph McAfee recently produced a data set that imposes high-resolution data from weather stations onto global climate models of the future to try to predict Alaska’s climate with more precision. It gives detailed projections for snow in different regions of the state over the next century.

“It brings the data to a spatial scale that’s more accessible and useful,” says McAfee, a climatologist with the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP), a climate change planning group at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

The technique is called downscaling. Picture Alaska divided into a grid of big cells of data (approximately 225 kilometers by 100 kilometers per cell). Each cell contains information about future climate and provides a single value for its entire coverage area—for example, a predicted temperature rise of 1 degree Fahrenheit over 30 years. Then you overlay a much tighter grid  of real-world  data (in 2 kilometer-by-2-kilometer cells), each small cell with a unique temperature and precipitation profile. Now apply the value from the big cell onto each small cell within it (i.e. add 1 degree). This is what today’s climate could look like in 30 years.

The big cells come from five different global climate models produced by climatology groups, selected by SNAP for their accuracy in predicting historical climate and their applicability to the arctic.

The small cells come from pre-packaged analyses of weather station data, including average monthly temperature and geographic information such as elevation, aspect and proximity to a coast or large body of water–all factors that influence snow formation.

A big cell covering the Kenai Peninsula, for instance, gives an average temperature for the whole box. Yet Kenai contains mountains and icefields, which would be colder than the rest of the peninsula.

“Having those elevational gradients expressed is important. A coarse resolution model might not know there are mountains there. It might not know you have snowfall there in June.”

Broadscale climate models have been fairly accurate in predicting global climate change over the past few decades. Yet they are incredibly complex, relying on many hard-to-predict factors such as carbon emissions, solar energy levels, volcanoes and aerosols produced from power plants and other sources.

Downscaling these models with real-world data adds a new layer of uncertainty.

For example, the high-resolution climate data comes in monthly averages and doesn’t include information on rain or snow. To get that, McAfee consulted individual weather stations across the state to see how many days it rained versus snowed, and calculated a relationship between precipitation and temperature. Then she incorporated that relationship into the higher-resolution grid to predict snowfall across the state.

Still, you can never be sure what fell from the sky.

“Last October in Anchorage, we got most of our precipitation during the first week. It was relatively warm and it rained. Then it got really cold and clear and we didn’t get much if any snow,” McAfee says. “By looking at the monthly averages, you would have no idea that almost all the precipitation was rain.”

Also, because there are only so many weather stations (this study used 100), that data has to be expanded to cover all the 2-by-2-kilometer cells in the state, which weakens its accuracy.

While projected snow varies greatly across the five climate models, one thing is clear: milder climates will lose the most snow, and fastest.

In an aggressive warming scenario, Southwest and Bristol Bay would see almost exclusively rain by the end of the century. While the North Slope and Interior may get more rain in the shoulder seasons, snow will still dominate in the winter.

This data can be used by anyone interested in future snow levels, such as public land planners, wildlife managers or the ski industry.

“It may not be perfect but it will help some people with some of their questions and identify where we might need more advanced techniques or different methods,” McAfee said.

The snow data set includes nine decades worth of monthly outlooks. It can be found at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/data.php


Since the late 1970s, the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geophysical Institute has provided this column free in cooperation with the UAF research community. 

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UAF photo by Todd Paris
Folk band Ester Jelly Jam members entertain Fairbanks folks during the Really Free Market

The University of Alaska Fairbanks will host the fifth annual Really Free Market Saturday, May 18 in the Patty Center parking lot.

People can drop off clean, safe, usable items from 8- 10 a.m. The market will be open from 10 a.m. to noon. There is no bartering, trading or selling. All items are free.

For more information on this and other summer events at UAF, visit www.uaf.edu/summer.

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UAMN photo
The National Park Service at Denali National Park and Preserve loaned this minimum thermometer to the exhibit. It was left between rocks on Denali Pass by Hudson Stuck and later recovered by the Lindley-Like expedition almost 20 years later.

An exhibit opening May 18 at the University of Alaska Museum of the North tells the story of the first ascent of North America’s tallest mountain. “Denali Legacy: 100 Years on the Mountain” explores the journey through the journals of the four climbers who reached the peak on June 7, 1913.

Guest Curator Angela Linn says there was more to the story of the climb than the official published version. “As with all historical events, we learn about the history through the eyes of the person who wrote it down. The story that Hudson Stuck published in ‘Ascent of Denali’ was an exciting and important one – but the personalities of the team members didn’t come across.

“Through the journal entries of Stuck, Harry Karstens, Walter Harper, and Robert Tatum, we get new insights into what really happened during the three months these men were engaged in the common goal of being the first to set foot on the summit of Denali. From the practical jokes to the tedious daily work on the mountain, every day the journals reveal what was on the minds of these men.”

UAMN photoThis model will be the screen for an animated film illustrating a century of climbs on Denali.

When Linn started the project, she assumed there would be few objects. “But the archives holding the journals agreed to loan them, and then the families of the climbers came forward with some of the precious few things that still exist – the only remaining ice axe, one of the tie pins made by Tiffany & Co. with granite from the mountain and the hand-made flag. These artifacts will allow visitors to connect with the climbers in a way that simple words on paper cannot. This is the power of objects.”

UAMN photo Guest curator Angela Linn, right, unpacks the journals used by Hudson Stuck during the 1913 ascent of Denali. They are archived by the American Geographical Society and are on loan to the UA Musuem of the North for the exhibit.

In addition, visitors will be able to explore the legacy of the first ascent through a documentary and several family-friendly activities, such as a Denali base camp and a knot tying station. “Denali Legacy: 100 Years on the Mountain” will be on display in the museum’s Special Exhibits Gallery until April 12, 2014. The exhibit was created in partnership with Denali National Park and Preserve.

ADDITIONAL CONTACTS: Angela Linn, guest curator, at 907-474-1828 or via email at ajlinn@alaska.edu.

ON THE WEB: museum.uaf.edu

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The Alaska Center for Energy and Power will host a community lecture on Tuesday, May 21 at 6 p.m. at the Blue Loon.

Gene Therriault, Alaska Energy Authority deputy director of statewide energy planning and policy, will provide an overview of the liquefied natural gas trucking project and discuss next steps.

For more information, visit www.uaf.edu/acep. The lecture is free and open to the public.

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